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4-22 Evening


We have two plays on the evening card, including our 5th DoubleDown play of the year.


Reds (Cessa) +142 v Pirates (Hill) 1.u


Cessa has been roughed up a few times already this year, but we think he is better than that based on numbers from the end of last season. We're willing to give him another shot. Rich Hill has has a bit of a renaissance this season. Not buying it. The model has this as a 50/50 game.


Brewers (Miley) -122 v Red Sox (Whitlock) 2.u


The model has the Brew Crew at somewhere north of -150 fair value. The combination of likelihood of wining and better than 20% value vs the model makes a double down play.


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