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MLB 5-5 Evening

The model is throwing out plays left and right tonight.

Reds (Greene) -105 v White Sox (Lynn)

Pirates (Hill) +145 v Blue Jays (Bassitt)

A's (Muller) +135 v Royals (Keller)

Tigers (Boyd) +195 v Cardinals (Montgomery)

A's-Royals over 9.5 -116

These games fall into a few, sometimes overlapping categories.

The Tigers-Cardinals game is in the category of "have the oddsmakers been paying attention at all to the current season?" The Cards have been wildly underperforming and the Tigers just completed a four game sweep of the Mets. The model has Boyd with better projections than Montgomery. The net is that we have a coin toss of game where one side is a better than 2-1 favorite. We'll take the big plus money.

We think that the Reds with Hunter Greene should be a significant favorite against the slow moving disaster of Lance Lynn and the White Sox. Easy choice.

Like the Tigers, the A's are just a numbers play. The model actually has the A's as a small favorite on the road against the likes of Brad Keller. Both starters and the White Sox bullpen are ready to light the oil tank on fire at any time, which is why the over looks good to us. We would play it up to 10.

Likewise the model has the Pirates at home with a lefty as a slightly more than 50% likely winner against the Jays. Again, take the plus money.

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