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MLB April Is Over


We are closing the books on a terrible April. We have a thoughts on why April went badly, but it boils down to stale numbers and rule changes.


Early in any season data models are fraught due to the lack of recent numbers. Using numbers from the end of the previous season is your only real choice if you are going to make projections. So you use them and watch closely for the unexpected.


This season has brought different and very specific challenges, mostly with regard to starting pitching. How do you project how a pitcher will perform under a new rule set using old data? You don't. We didn't make any plays in the first week or so of the season, and waded in slowly after, but not slowly enough. We have confidence that our model, successful in previous years, is still valid.


Thankfully each day brings new data, and we move into May with optimism.

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