Two plays tonight.
Red Sox (Whitlock) -125 v Marlins (Alcantara)
We hesitated to release this one, due to lack of data from Whitlock's stop and start season. In the end, we felt there was enough to go on.
Before we even get to the pitching number, the Bosox have a projected run advantage of almost 1.4 runs, a very wide gap.
Alcantara has been decent on the road, but not dominant. Whitlock has been fantastic in limited action at Fenway. We make fair odds on the Boston -176. Easy to lay the -125.
Astros-Cardinals over 8 -105
We start with two lineups with above average pop. For the Cardinals tonight, that comes mainly from the top of the order with Edman and Goldschmidt who have very strong numbers against lefties. Even without Yordan the 'Stros have plenty of pop.
We make the raw projected run total for both teams at around 10. When we factor in pitching, it actually goes up a bit. Like Sandy in the above game, Valdez has strong but not overwhelming road number. (Projected run suppression .92.) And we expect the Cards pitching tonight to be a little worse than average.
Finally, our secret weapon is home plate umpire Alan Porter. We have his run factor at 6% over expected. We think this one reached double digits.