If you love baseball, you love opening day. You have fond memories of opening day going back to your childhood. Your parents, siblings, and friends. Hot dogs. Pollen. Spring is springing, baseballs are hitting mitts, love is in the air, everything is new again, hope springs, and no team has a loss on their record yet. (Except the A's, somehow who are already 0-3?)
But if you are a modeler, opening day is a nightmare. Your most recent stats are 6 months old. You a have new crop of rookies to consider armed only with projection and speculation. The weather sucks. Starters are largely on tight pitch counts. And added to that this year, we have three radical new rules changes that no one seems to have a handle on.
Because of all this, we will be wading in to the season slowly. We would love to come out of the gate firing on 6-8 games, but that would be completely reckless.
Any early season plays will be limited to 1/2 a unit. Through most of the season we bet full game sides, but in the early going we will do mainly first fives as we wait for evidence to evaluate bullpens and see how they are being used. No K props for a few weeks, as many pitchers will be on pitch counts.
We've run numbers on todays card and do have one lean that we will confirm after lineups are released. Will post it later .Good luck and enjoy some baseball!