Tonight we love White Sox (Kopech) +100 v Rangers (Perez)
We rate the Chisox as a 71% likely winner, a should-be number of -243.
We've had a few days off here at data-ball following a bad run. We've decided to stop cataloging 6-12 plays per night and focus on the plays that we really love. That will enable us to go a bit more in depth about the data, and hopefully provide some value to the reader.
For the Rangers, this is a tale of two pitchers, and both of them are Martin Perez.
Perez has the starkest home/road splits of any significant starting pitcher in MLB this year. We put his road home run suppression projection (which uses the last 6 starts from each category) at a massive 1.85. That means we expect him to give up on average about 4.5 runs every 5 innings. At home his number is .6, or about 1.5 runs per 5 innings. In fact, if Martin Perez was starting against himself, facing the same lineups as tonight, we would make home Perez a -225 favorite.
On the flip side, Michael Kopech has notable, if less spectacular home/road splits. His home suppression number is .49. We we would expect about 1.2 runs per five from Kopech.
As far as the lineups go, this is the rare case of the Rangers rating lower in run production than an opponent's lineup. This is largely due to the White Sox strong numbers vs lefties.
If you are into player props, we rate Luis Robert Jr as the likeliest offensive star. We put Kopech's strikeout mean at 7.2, and Perez at 2.4