Tonight, our first prime play is
Pirates-Marlins over 7.5
We use four pitching retaing in every game. The home team starter has a run suppression rating, the home team bullpen has a collective run suppression rating. Repeat for the visitor. Each side's numbers are then blended proportionate to our expectations for how deep each starter will go.
For this game, we have Luzardo and the Marlins pen each at slightly better than average, netting out to a .92 (92% of average). The Pirated bullpen rates slightly worse than average at 1.05. But Luis Ortiz? Oh no, my friend. Luis is rating out at 1.74. That would project to about 4.3 runs in 5 innings.
These two offenses often get pegged as anemic. The data does not bear that out! Both rate out average or just above, in terms of projected runs.
We think this game gets into double digits.