Prime Play 6-30 Early

We will probably have a play or two later, but wanted to get this one out before first pitch.
Reds-Padres over 11
The number is pretty high, but it's not high enough. This play may seem a little square, but these are two potent lineups against mediocre to poor pitching in a ball park that sets baseballs on fire like brimstone from an angry god. Oh, and out HP Ump, Jeff Nelson, on average presides over games with scoring 8% above average.
Let's not overthink it.