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Prime Play 7-3 Afternoon

We like one play today:

Brewers (Teheran) +100 v Cubs (Smyly)

This one is all about the much maligned Julio Teheran. There's been a lot skepticism since his return, much of it shared by us. But at a certain point, the numbers are just the numbers. And Julio's home numbers have been nothing short of elite in his four starts this season.

His home PRS number coming into today is .35. Meaning we project him to surrender 35% of the runs an average pitcher would. Is that sustainable? No way. But it also can not be ignored.

His opposite number, Mr Smyly has a perfectly respectable PRS of .87. (And although we didn't quite get there, a F5 under would not be a terrible play.) But on the basis of Teheran's eye-popping number, we rate a fair line on this one as -160 for the home Brew-Crew.

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