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Prime Plays 6-28


Four PPs on the card tonight.


Pirates (Keller) +140 v Padres (Snell)

Pirates-Padres F5 under 4.5 -123


Snell is getting a lot of credit for having a great season, and he should! His rod numbers here are terrific with .54 projected run suppression number. However, a bit more quietly, Keller has been stellar at home coming in with an identical PRS number.


You don't hear much about home/road splits with regard to bullpen, but the Padres bullpen should be held up as an example. This crew is fantastic at home, and gruesome on the road. The Pirates bullpen is subpar, but not the kerosene can the Friar's group is. We think the Pirates should be favored at home over the disappointing Padres. Take the plus.


Brewer-Mets F5 under 4.5 -102.


All the numbers on this point to the under. Miley and Senga have PRS numbers of .61 and .74 respectively. Both bullpens are above average, both lineups are below average offensively. Our HP ump Carlos Torres has a .95 run rating number.


The full game under of 8.5 -110 is nearly identical in terms of numerical edge, but we went F5 to remove the risk of extra innings.


Rockies (Freeland) +188 v Dodgers (Grove)


Not sure if this is a bullpen game for LA or if they really are looking 5 innings from Grove. They aren't likely to get it. Grove has a road PRS number of a sky high 1.8. Freeland has actually been respectable at home this year with a PRS number of an even 1.0. The Rockies' pen is rough, but the Dodger pen isn't great either. (Rockies bullpen PRS 1.47, Dodgers 1.10) We think the Rockies are better than 50% to actually win this one, so we are taking the big dog money.


Good luck!


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