Two plays on the early card tonight:
Reds (Ashcraft) -115 v Nationals (Gray)
Have to love it when your numbers give you permission to do what you want to do anyway. Namely: bet the Reds.
The much maligned Graham Ashcraft actually has pretty average road numbers with a PRS of 1.06. All Star (?) Josiah Gray on the other hand over his last six road starts projects a 1.3. The Reds offense is already way ahead of the home team (5.1 vs 4.2) making this an easy call. We make the fair no vig odds on this Reds -143
Cubs-Brewers under 8 -102
The only weak link in the four pitching entities in this is Adrian Houser (PRS 1.33), and we don't expect him to pitch more than 4 innings. Steele and the two bullpens all have outstanding PRS numbers, neither lineup is lighting it on fire. We project this game to a mean of 5.8 runs.
Possibly more later.